Just two months in the past when the young forward stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Hopefuls?
That’s a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have accumulated.
As per the data, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener came from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.